Climate impacts

Using both historical data and climate science projections, we can build an understanding of the impacts we are likely to face from changing climate conditions over the decades to come.

Hotter and dryer

In Matamata-Piako increasingly hot, dry conditions, with the associated risks of water shortages, drought and fire, is a key risk for us.

Historical rainfall data shows that the Waikato is becoming an increasingly dry region.

Map A shows the amount of rain that fell in the Waikato region over each 10-year period, compared to the average rainfall from 1961 to 2020. It’s expressed as a percentage to show whether the rainfall is higher, lower, or about the same as the long-term average. Source: Waikato Regional Council Water Security Strategy.

Map B shows the projected increase in hot days (over 25 degrees C) expected by the end of this century if we remain on the same path as currently in terms of our carbon emissions. Source: NIWA Climate Projections Map.

Alongside these trends of increasing dry and hot weather we have demand pressure on our water resources.

Map C shows the allocation pressure in summer and winter on catchments in the Waikato region. The Piako and Whangamarino catchments have very high allocation pressure. The Mōkau, Waihou and Mangawara catchments have low allocation pressure. Source: Waikato Regional Council Water Security Strategy.

Storms and flooding

At the other extreme, we are also expecting to experience more frequent and severe storms with the associated risks of surface and river flooding, loss of essential services and damage to infrastructure and property.

This map shows the projected increase in heavy rainfall (99th percentile) expected by the end of this century if we remain on the same path as currently in terms of our carbon emissions. Source: Waikato Regional Council Water Security Strategy.

Increasing disruption, increasing costs

As extreme weather events become more frequent and severe, the disruption and costs to communities increases.

This graph shows the rising costs of natural hazard events in New Zealand over time. Source: Insurance Council of New Zealand.